The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.
The next 50 years will look very different. Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.
The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.
[ … ]
It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soybeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems. | 50年前尼尔•阿姆斯特朗踏足月球表面的那一刻,全世界都为之震撼、自豪和惊叹。本报曾论述道:“从今天起,人类只要心有所想、智慧所及,便能去往宇宙的任何地方…现在看来,人类必定能较过去更早地登上其他星球。”但是事实并非如此。此次登月是非常规计划,目标不为实现登月本身,而是为展示美国的超强实力。这一点一旦证实,便不需要再重复。时至今日,仅有571人进入过太空轨道。自1972年以来,人类深入太空的距离还不及德梅因到芝加哥的路程远。 但接下去的50年将完全不同。成本的下降,新技术的涌现,中国和印度的雄心勃勃,新生代企业家的崛起,都预示着一个太空开发大有可为的新时代。几乎可以肯定的是,宇宙空间开发将能让富人遨游太空,让大众尽享更好的通信网络;长远而言,还可能将矿产开采、甚至是公共交通运输都囊括在内。太空将越来越像是地球的延伸,不仅仅由政府垄断,而是将成为公司和私人间的竞技场。但为了实现这个远大前景,全世界需出台一套管制太空的法律制度,不仅适用于和平年代,也适用于可能出现的战争时期。 迄今为止,太空开发一直专注于为地球上的人类活动提供便利,主要涉及应用于传播和导航的卫星通信。而现在,有两方面正在发生改变。第一,受地缘政治的影响,各国纷纷希望载人飞往高度较低的近地轨道之外。中国计划在2035年实现载人登月。特朗普政府则希望美国人能在2024年前重返月球。因成本的下降,这场太空秀的代价比起过去不再难以承受。阿波罗计划曾耗资数千亿美元(按货币现值计算),而如今几百亿美元即可实现。 [ … ] 将太空推崇为另一个理想化的“西大荒”是错误的,太空并非是人类摆脱禁锢、改变命运的无政府主义前沿阵地。要实现美好的太空愿景,法治必不可少。但世界各国连地球上钢筋和大豆的交易规则都无法达成一致,在这时进行太空立法可能要求过高。但若无法可依,所有对地球之外的潜力开发至少需要再等50年才能实现,而最坏情况下,太空还可能为地球带来更多问题。 |